The story that broke over the weekend about Bush/Cheney escalating covert activities in Iran, possibly indicating a build-up to armed confrontation with the country is not surprising, is it? Especially interesting is this quote from the article:
President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have rejected findings from U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran has halted a clandestine effort to build a nuclear bomb and “do not want to leave Iran in place with a nuclear program,” Hersh said.
Haven’t we heard it all before? The President’s logic seems to be, “I understand that we spend big bucks on all of these intelligence operations, recruiting and training smart people to carry them out, but in the the end, Dick and myself and our buddies are a lot smarter than all of them.” It’s infuriating to see the U.S. embroiled in the war in Iraq, having gotten there on false pretenses put forth by the administration, and then to see the same thing happening again now. Now, just as with the Iraq invasion, you can’t help from feeling that ulterior motives are involved.
In this case, it’s hard to believe that the November election is not fully part of these new activities. So far the polls are pointing to a decent Obama popular and electoral lead. The rhetoric coming from both sides of the race is the same that we have always heard. The republicans will try to paint Obama as too inexperienced to handle military matters, McCain’s veteran status and tenure as a politician will be cast as the obvious antidote.
This strategy only works if the Republicans can convince the American public that major military knowledge is a top criterion needed by the next president. Obama is already pledged to make the major military shifts in Iraq that will lead to us eventually to getting the troops back home, a move that has immense popularity with the voting public. The republicans are out of luck on that one, so what better strategy than to start a whole new military mess that will stoke the fire and cast into relief Obama’s lack of experience. Effectively counteracting the power of his stance on Iraq. Start a war in Iran! If not the real start of a war in Iran, at least the appearance of one. Or if not that, at least propagate a general paranoia about Iran’s nuclear capabilities so that the public will feel a military confrontation is imminent. Fear is great motivating force; enough of it can make people believe just about anything you tell them.
Seymour Hersh says in the CNN article:
“They believe that their mission is to make sure that before they get out of office next year, either Iran is attacked or it stops its weapons program.”
Of course it is! Either of these outcomes would be would be a politically expedient way of trying to reestablish the political power that is so quickly slipping from the Republican’s hands, and it would be a great boon to the McCain campaign. If Iran stops its nuclear program, McCain’s policy of casting himself as the third coming of George W. Bush will finally seem like and ingenious move. If the U.S. proceeds to attack Iran, then the fear, worry (and the likely jingoism that will accompany such fear), will be a great boon to McCain as the more-prepared military leader.
Even if Obama could pull off the victory under such circumstances, the current administration will have left the next administration such a complex cesspool of half-baked military engagements to deal with that Obama administration will be hard-pressed to deal with in any publicly or politically successful way. Thus the road back to Republican control will have been paved by more misinformation, dead soldiers, and increasing diplomatic isolation.
Compared to these types of political ploys, the strategies of Karl Rove in the last two elections look like grade-school pranks. The playbook is being re-written. Or is it? Surely they can’t in good conscience stoop this low. Surely they wouldn’t make Iran the land where the next election is decided. Surely they would never do that, would they?
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